Alabama catches 6.5 points from Georgia in Week 4. 25,000 GRIDIRON simulations returns Georgia 30.4, Alabama 20.1 — a projected margin of 10.3 for Georgia and a projected total of 50.5. That leaves 3.8 points of daylight between the model and the number, which is why Georgia -6.5 carries a PLAY verdict on The Card.
Through 3 games Georgia sits at +30.3 per game in scoring margin. Scoring differentials that far from the mean this early are part signal, part schedule, and part variance. The PF/PA Claw-Back applies James-Stein shrinkage toward the conference baseline before the number reaches the simulation, pulling Georgia 2.4 points down from where raw season stats would place them. Georgia carries a -2.4 adjustment, Alabama a -1.1. The market is slower to discount a hot start than the shrinkage estimator is, and that lag is where most of this edge comes from.
52.5 is the number to beat on the total. GRIDIRON projects 50.5, a 2.0-point lean to the Under, with the Under clearing in 53.7% of simulations. That clears the 2-point threshold, so the Under is playable alongside the side.
Verdict: PLAY on Georgia -6.5. The cover hits in 58.6% of 25,000 simulations, which sizes to 5.9% of bankroll based on win-probability conviction. Stay inside the weekly exposure cap — a PLAY is a bigger slice of the same pie, not a reason to grow the pie.
GRIDIRON projects Georgia to win Georgia 30.4 to Alabama 20.1, with Georgia taking the game outright in 71.2% of simulations.
The market has Georgia at -6.5 with a total of 52.5. Our projected margin of 10.3 puts the model 3.8 points off that number.
52.5 is the number to beat on the total. GRIDIRON projects 50.5, a 2.0-point lean to the Under, with the Under clearing in 53.7% of simulations. That clears the 2-point threshold, so the Under is playable alongside the side.
It is the shrinkage step that regresses each team's season points-for and points-against toward a conference baseline before simulation, so a hot or cold start does not get extrapolated at face value. For this game it moves Georgia -2.4 and Alabama -1.1 points.
Model output, not advice. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.